Current government projections may significantly underestimate the future life expectancy of Americans, according to new research from the MacArthur Research Network on an Aging Society published today. The research finds that by 2050 Americans may live 3.1 to 7.9 years longer than official government projections, resulting in sharply higher costs for government programs that serve older citizens. The findings are based on the premise that the risk of death in the coming decades will be reduced by accelerated advances in biomedical technology that delay the onset and progression of major fatal diseases or that slow the aging process.
The study, published in The Milbank Quarterly, estimates that cumulative outlays for Medicare and Social Security could rise by $3.2 to $8.3 trillion from current government projections by 2050. Researchers also point out that longer life expectancy has positive implications for society, including new and expanded markets in health care and leisure and a more experienced work force.
Study authors include Columbia Professor and former Aetna CEO John Rowe, University of Illinois Professor Jay Olshansky, and University of Southern California Professor and RAND researcher Dana Goldman. They are members of the MacArthur Research Network on an Aging Society, an inter-disciplinary group that seeks to help America prepare for the challenges and opportunities posed by our aging society. Participants represent a wide range of disciplines, including gerontology, psychology and health behavior, macroeconomics and public policy, social epidemiology, cognitive neuroscience, demography, and aging policy. The Network is supported by a three-year, $3.9 million MacArthur grant.